So, the day has come, and MicroVision's market cap is finally big enough so that you won't get banned for mentioning it on WSB. But what is it? Why have they seen an 800%+ increase in three months? Where are they headed? Allow me to explain. submitted by BigBlackWifey to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] About Them MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) makes futuristic-as-fuck laser technology that's used in self driving cars and augmented reality headsets. This already sets them apart from a major competitors like Velodyne (VLDR), which focuses solely on LiDAR for self driving cars. Sumit Sharma, the CEO, was head of operations at Google's Project GLASS and has worked to map hardware development at Motorola, also worked at Jawbone. Source Why have they been increasing 800% in three months while similar companies in the same sector see a fraction of that gain? Because their tech is much more advanced than the competition, and they were (are) criminally undervalued. The reason they're so undervalued is because the first thing hedge funds see when they research a potential investment is the balance sheet, and on paper MVIS looks like shit. (Low assets, high liabilities) Even I saw the movement back in December, did some research, and was like "Wtf is this? I need to get puts" But once you do research into their product, who their customers are, and the future of the industry that they are involved in, you see that MicroVision is a turnaround story similar to that of Plug Power; both are 90's futuristic companies that people got way too excited about in 2000, have struggled to make it to 2020, but now are about to finally have their heyday. And they got a $13 million equity facility (loan) in December that greatly improved their balance sheet, making them appeal to institutions, and bringing Vanguard and Blackrock to invest in MVIS days later. I actually had a hedge fund manager tell me that MVIS was doomed to run out of cash in Q1 2020, but if they secured funds then they would have a lot of potential. I go over that in the comments. MVIS (left) vs PLUG (right) 1990's until present Anyways, what is this "much more advanced" technology? I'll just let this chart do the talking: The MicroVision Consumer LIDAR being compared here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars, that will be coming in April. The resolution it can take as input/second, the points per second, is key when it comes to how clearly the LiDAR sensor can see, how accurately it can identify what it is seeing, and how quickly it can react. That chart is from 2 years ago and still the best resolution Velodyne can provide today is only 4,800,000 pps in their most advanced model, the "Alpha Prime" 3D Lidar Data Points Generated 2- Single Return Mode: ~ 2,400,000 points per second- Dual Return Mode: ~ 4,800,000 points per second.VLDR has not publicly announced a price for their Alpha Prime yet, but historically their top of the line devices cost $75,000. I have seen unsourced numbers of the Alpha Prime costing $100,000. That was last year, will probably be brought down to be more reasonable for automakers to purchase. They did announce a $500 model called the Velarray H800 in November, but the only thing they said about its pps resolution is that its "outstanding"... lol. As for Luminar (LAZR), they will launch the new model "Iris" in 2022, which will cost about $1,000: (the same price as MicroVision's device to be revealed in April). It will also only operate at 10Hz. This is similar to playing a racing game at 10FPS. If you know anything about video games, you know that this is unplayable. Iris will cost less than $1,000 per unit for production vehicles seeking serious autonomy, and for $500 you can get a more limited version for more limited purposes like driver assistance, or ADAS. Luminar says Iris is 'slated to launch commercially on production vehicles beginning in 2022,' but that doesn't mean necessarily that it's shipping to customers right now. The company is negotiating more than a billion dollars in contracts at present, a representative told me, and 2022 would be the earliest that vehicles with Iris could be made available.A lengthy post has been make comparing Luminar's resolutions with MicroVision's, which was not easy to calculate because Luminar said their resolution was "300dpi/spdeg", a statistic that is incomprehensible for shareholders because its not the common specification of millions (3D) points per second. Here's the math, I sum it all up at the bottom: Luminar's Hydra claims resolution of "up to 200 points per square degree" and a FOV of 120° x 30° (degrees). (and 300 points for Iris, the one coming in 2022.)TLDR: The best case scenario for Luminar is that their 2022 model will have 10.8 million pps, but in reality its probably much lower than that because of FOV configurations, careful wording by press releases, and Hz limitations. Additional Interesting insight on Luminar and their tech lagging behind is in the comments, this post is long enough already. Again the MicroVision Consumer LIDAR (specifications) being used for comparison here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars. Their device specialized for cars, the "1st gen Long Range LiDAR (LRL) Sensor", will be coming in April. We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equates to 520 points per square degree.(For those who read the math on LAZR, notice he doesn't say up to) It testing is successful, the 1st Generation LRL Sensor will be able to calculate velocity of objects relative to itself, and be able to be used in Level 3 and Level 4 self-driving applications Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.What is Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving? https://preview.redd.it/n4c8831l9dh61.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=0652984c72da3159b53a4fc4058c9d9e33cc6b05 Level 1 is feet off, level 2 is hands off, level 3 is eyes off, level 4 is mind off, and level 5 is full passenger (you can sit in the back). So basically, they have that 2045 technology today, while everyone else is trying to play catch-up. How is it so advanced? It all lies in the high resolution of the laser sensors. I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features.If their devices can really recognize people, objects, and pets, it could integrate security verticals in MicroVision's business model. (Video surveillance is expected to reach a 144.5 B market size by 2027) Why not just use cameras? Cameras are worse at long distances, LiDAR is the only sensor that gives you resolution at range: the ability to get very fine and very accurate detection of objects in space.that's why Teslas use radar systems in addition to their cameras, still not good enough to prevent fatalities on the road using Tesla's "full self-driving" software. Also, cameras struggle with light glare, weather, and 3D imaging, while LiDAR fixes all those issues. The main advantage of cameras are their resolution, and MicroVision is bridging the gap. So, will testing be successful? We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. (Same source)This product has been getting fine tuned for years and I am personally confident that they will be able to outperform in their testing. Demonstration(YT links aren't allowed apparently) of their consumer LiDAR product from 2018 (make sure your quality is all the way up). Growing Industry The self-driving cars market is expected to reach 220.44 billion dollars by 2025. This includes taxi, civil, public transport, heavy duty trucks, ride shares, and ride hail (UBER - 72 B mkt cap) applications. Traffic Accidents in the US alone Cost 871 Billion A Year, even just yesterday there was an insane pileup on the I-35W highway in Texas that killed 6, injured 36, and damaged 133 vehicles. Not only self-driven cars need LiDAR. In a few years, as soon as MicroVision's 1st Gen LRL is available, LiDAR systems will certainly become mandatory for (still) human-controlled cars to avoid collisions. This tech could become as revolutionary and successful as airbags. Airbags are a 37.3 billion dollar industry. If only 10% of the cars produced annually contain four Microvision LRL systems, this will result in a volume of 364 million units in ten years. (9.1 million cars * 4 modules * 10 years) And this is a conservative calculation, both a higher market share, more cars produced, and more modules per car are conceivable. At least 4 LRL devices will be necessary to establish a \"circle of safety.\" Augmented Reality The Hololens 2 is an example of a Virtual Reality Device (VRD) manufactured by Microsoft that uses MicroVision MEMS Laser Scanning display modules inside. NASA & Lockeed Martin using Hololens (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) 'When a technician puts on the Hololens, they instantly see the work instruction, instead of having to go through stacks of rectangular data, whether its paper or another form of a screen'...From 2002-2006, MVIS commercialized versions of a monochrome (red) VRD for industry and the military. It was called Nomad. Microvision also developed a full color version for the military, the Spectrum SD2500. The military alone currently intends to spend almost $3B on IVAS, augmented reality devices that use MicroVision tech, in the next several years. (Video at 1:12 - "based on Microsoft's Hololens" - amazing, must watch - "lets you see around corners.. see through smoke") (There is a money trail to confirm too: financial report) One of the many capabilities of the IVAS heasets. MicroVision revolutionizing the way people use GPS systems, to launch in July. (GPS industry will be 146.4 B by 2025) This new GPS system comes equipped with an augmented reality heads-up-display (HUD) that attaches directly to your sun visor. This laser-projected GPS micro-display, developed in collaboration with MicroVision, makes it appear that your route directions show directly on top of the road, letting you keep your eyes on the road at the same time.There's a reason that Apple CEO Tim Cook said a few weeks ago that Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing." Cook was asked about what he expects to be the biggest tech developments in the next five to 10 years. Cook’s response made it clear that he sees augmented reality as the future, calling it the “next big thing.”Imperial College Healthcare using Hololens 2 to fight the coronavirus. While attending a trauma call in the early stages of the pandemic, Mr Kinross noticed that 29 people were working in close proximity. He realized the established way of working would have to change dramatically.Mercedes-Benz using Microsoft HoloLens 2 for faster, safer vehicle service. Mercedes-Benz Virtual Remote Support The technician is then linked with a Mercedes-Benz specialist working remotely who can see what the tech sees and communicate in real-time -- manipulating the holographic information with annotations, highlighting areas of focus, pointing at things in the real world and presenting documents and service manuals.In the next few years, business verticals will be possible in the markets for smart glasses (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and projections with touchless input(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and gesture control. For example, an eyewear company could develop the smallest and lightest smart glasses device on the market using the chip in that smart glasses video. In the MicroVision Augmented Reality video, for example, we share a potential module design using our existing MEMS technology platform that could offer the lightest, smallest in volume, low power module with up to 40 degrees field of view packaged into eye wear that resembles frames currently accepted in the market. I believe one could see how our module in the design example would be compelling for a mass-market product. Source Patents MicroVision has 484 patents granted and pending. This was enough to get them on the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Value Index. What is that you ask? The Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Value Index includes the top value companies of the broad- market Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Index, as determined by the price-to-book ratio, and is diversified across market capitalization. It is the industry’s first value index based on the value of intellectual property and represents a portfolio of 60 companies with the highest innovation ratio (i.e., patent maintenance value relative to book value). SourceThis index also outperforms the Russel 1000 and the S&P 500. Their intellectual property includes in-house developed custom MEMS, custom optics, proprietary digital and analog silicon chips, embedded real-time firmware and software, manufacturing processes, custom automation and strategic partnerships that allow them to operate in a sleek model. MicroVision patents and products therefore serve many future markets:
All Notable Competition: Velodyne LiDAR, Luminar, Sense Photonics, Robosense, Valeo, SureStar MicroVision: founded in 1993 Velodyne Lidar VLDR: founded in 1983, but as a subwoofer company 😂 and only got into LiDAR in 2005 LAZR: founded in 2012 Non-Public: Valeo: Founded in 1998 Robosense: Founded in 2014 SureStar: Founded in 2005 Basically, MVIS is all these other companies' daddy. They have been working on LiDAR for almost 30 years and it shows, just imagine what they will be able to develop in a few years with more funding. https://preview.redd.it/eh5csdcz9dh61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=068fe6f5508e693ace5c6c56d4d2a5d9294836fb Insider Activity MicroVision is very transparent with its inner workings of the company, you can easily reach out to them on their website under "Investors." One of many conferences held with Vice President David Westgor, investor relations manager Dave Allen, and investors of MVIS revealed: As to the employee incentive plan, Steve Holt made the point that in his 7 years of experience (I think it was) with MVIS, NO EMPLOYEE had actually ever cashed out in the money options.Case in point, on December 1s, 2020, the day after she joined the team, Judith Curran was paid with 3 million dollars worth of $3 calls expiring in 2022, and she has not cashed out. On Yahoo it reports that the last insider sale was in 2014. Institutional Investments For reasons stated earlier, institutions have been late to the game on this one, but now are starting to get on the rocket ship before it takes off. MVIS is now the largest holding in the S&P Kensho Moonshots Index, (KMOONP), which is literally an ETF of stocks that are going go the moon 🌙 . Blackrock purchased 2.44 million shares on December 31, 2020. Vanguard purchased 6.61 million shares on the same day. Recent Events MVIS's stagnation really started to break on December 1st 2020, with MVIS when former Ford Executive Judith Curran was added to MVIS's board of directors. Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30 years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and connectivity.Doesn't take a genius to figure out they were about to ride the EV wave, and were appointing the right people to be poised to do so. Eight days later on December 8th 2020, the US Congress approved approximately $700M for the roll-out of IVAS in 2021. 7 days after that on December 15th, MVIS broke $4 for the first time in nine years. December 29, 2020: MicroVision Announces $13 Million At-the-Market Equity Facility (this is huge for improving balance sheet and attracting hedge funds/institutional ownership) So far, our team remains on track to complete our Long Range Lidar sensor sample in April 2021. We believe this financing will further solidify our balance sheet as we remain committed to pursuing strategic alternatives and establishing value for our shareholders,” said Sumit Sharma, MicroVision Chief Executive Officer. “We expect a stronger balance sheet will provide the Company with runway through 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022 to enable us to continue development of our lidar sensor while pursuing strategic alternatives,” said Steve Holt, MicroVision Chief Financial Officer.December 31: Vanguard adds 6.6 million shares, Blackrock adds adds 2.4. January 20, 2021: Apple CEO Tim Cook says Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing." Feb 2, 2021 YooToob stock analyst Deadnsyde covers(YT links aren't allowed apparently) MVIS, causing the beginning of a large breakout past $8. Feb 4: MicroVision granted patent (WSB bot is blocking source from being posted- thinks it contains a ticker), essentially lidar on a chip, this patent in particular is huge. (solid state lidar) Feb 10: Cramer mentions MVIS, says LIDAR is one of three battlegrounds for EV competition. Feb 10 after hours: MVIS announces Progress on Automotive Long Range LiDAR, saying “We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision. Feb 11: Volkswagen and Microsoft team up on automated driving (potential for MVIS to get involved). Talent at MicroVision Sumit Sharma became the CEO in February of 2020, he is a mechanical engineer that has been with MVIS for five years after having been the head of operations at Google Project Glass, and working for Motorola and Jawbone. Dr. Mark Spitzer is on the board of directors having previously worked at Google X, Darpa, Kopin and having founded Myvu and Photonic Glass. Judy Curran joined the board this year after spending 30 years at Ford, where she was the Director of Technical Strategy. She is also the Head of Global Automotive Strategy for Ansys, a simulation software company that works with ADAS systems. Technical analysis Resistance at 46.75, 123. 39, and 204. 23, could turn to supports. Moving Average Analysis: On February 28, 2020, Market Cap of PLUG was 1.32B, on this date the 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 11 months later, PLUG has a market cap of 33.79B, an increase of 2459%. On September 3, 2020, Market Cap of MVIS was 0.21B, on this date 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 5 months later, MVIS has a market cap of 2.77B an increase of 1219%. 6 months forward price target: $34.348B Conclusion/Valuation/TLDR LAZR is currently valued at 12.22B VLDR at 3.92B MVIS at 2.77B MicroVision offers a quantitatively much higher performance product than both of its competitor companies. Because of their lack of focus on augmented reality technologies, competitors are not likely to have a future in the markets of smart glasses, healthcare, engineering, military equipment, GPS safety, entertainment, and interactive projectors. They are involved in an industry that is currently at an inflection point, due to grow massively in the near future. Their high number of extremely advanced patents will bring in significant revenue for the company in the coming years. I have never seen a company with such low insider selling, that the last case of a sale was in 2014. Institutional investors are piling in as MicroVision's balance sheet improves and they near the April LRL sensor test date, which has a high likelihood of being a success. I think this stock should currently be valued at 20 Billion dollars, taking all of this into account, and expect it to rise drastically over the next few years. This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, do your own research before believing some retard on the internet. Positions: 300 shares, $19 call 5/21, $20 call 3/19, $31 call 2/19(FD), $28 call 2/19, $24 call 2/19. |
submitted by 1PercentMax to thetagang [link] [comments] Gain Porn Super happy that I finally squeezed that last bit of theta off this a.m. to lock in that thetabanging five bagger!!! Holding all cash atm to take a breather and wait for the next set of opportunities to show; definitely expecting more volatility to come in within the next week or so. Positions closed this morning (so I don’t get banned for not posting positions):
Planning on doing a full writeup of my experience/strategy later if and when I procrastinate on my studies again. Happy thetaganging! EDIT: Here's my recipe for tendies! Full Writeup First off, a little bit of background and introduction. I’m Max (not my real name), and I’m currently pursuing an advanced degree in data science while also working part-time to pay down my student debt. For years I have lurked and enjoyed basking in the wonderful content the Reddit community has to offer. In fact, I am actually ashamed by the lack of posting on my account, but it’s high time I give back with a detailed writeup of my process to growing my Robinhood portfolio. Strap in and get comfortable, because this one’s a long read! Full disclosure: RH was not my first brokerage account, and 2020 was not my first rodeo in trading options – I have a primary brokerage that I have been trading with for almost ten years now, and yes, I’ve paid my tuition in the form of both time in self-education and money in account losses long before deciding to plop my savings into RH. I’m going to preface my writeup by saying that the key ingredients required in making a profitable portfolio are, in unequal parts, a healthy mindset, a trading methodology, patience, and last but not least, luck. I’m still trying to peg a % to each ingredient, still haven’t arrived at a conclusive answer unfortunately. Healthy Mindset NGL, this to me is the absolute most important ingredient on the list. As the saying goes, you may have graduated from school, but you still got a ton of learning to do. This means maintaining an open mind and attitude towards learning new things and hearing other people’s opinions (something a lot of people in this world could use!) I used to think I was the bomb when some of my naked call purchases gave me instant 200% returns, but I quickly learned that buying FDs is unsustainable in the long run. One of the earliest things I also noticed when trading options is that it requires one to process information and execute a set of procedures, which is why attaining peak mental and physical health reduces any margin for error. Early in my trading days, there were times when due to the lack of sleep, I selected the wrong expiration date to my options, which resulted in a panic to correct the mis-action and also execute a “day trade” when I did not mean to. My approach: if I’m not at the right place, at the right time, in the right state of mind, I will not execute any trades. I also learned that there is absolutely zero room for emotion in this business – the best trades are executed when information is processed objectively, and decisions made swiftly. When emotions are introduced, our actions are easily skewed by human nature. Some common things you’ll hear are chasing after losses or revenge trading, which is a surefire way to blow up your account quickly. Which brings us to dealing with FOMOs – it’s an unhealthy emotion. Simply ask the people who are bagholding whatever asset they bought at the peak. We need to understand time only travels in one direction, and to prosper we should make our best decisions based on all available information at that point in time. GME and AMC were easily opportunities to FOMO into, but by the time I truly understood what was going on, RH had already placed restrictions on buying, which meant a suppression of demand and potentially cause mispricing and a rush for exit. Time moved on, and so did I – I still cured my FOMO, by selling spreads on both tickers as it came down, and still made away with profits! On a related note: dealing with YOLOs: please understand what survivorship bias is – for every 1 Redditor who made a massive gains post, there are probably 99 others who blew up their accounts using the same approach and strategy. Putting all your eggs in one lottery ticket is not smart – chances are, you will go broke. In the long run, you’re better off diversifying and executing trades in different baskets to minimize risk and maximize gain. Finally, like conquering the path to the top of Everest, it’s important to set small, attainable goals along the way. When I first started out, I risked only a small % of my total portfolio with any new strategy, and then gave it time. If and when the strategy is successful, I scale up and then move on to the next small, attainable goal of trying beating SPY’s monthly performance, after fees and taxes of course. Consistent and sustainable gains are hard to attain, but the task becomes easier the more you do it everyday! Trading Methodology If you skipped everything above, you’re missing out, big time! Having a healthy mindset is big piece of the puzzle to attaining consistent and sustainable portfolio gains! Anyway, we must first understand that trading is a game of supply and demand, and should be treated as a business; we trade because there is demand for an asset, and because there are profits to be made from supplying said asset. I did this early on without even realizing that it’s theta-ganging, and before reading a book about the One-Man-Insurance-Company (OMIC), but the strategy of trading credit spreads is essentially the business of selling insurance policies to the people who need it, and collecting a premium until the policy term expires, whether naturally or artificially. And how do we build a profitable insurance business? By spending a ton of money on clever and funny ads about 15 minutes and 15 percent. JK LOL! If only theta-ganging works that way. Though, who knows, you might find extra 15 percent gains after spending 15 minutes in thetagang! Like trading, the secret to theta-ganging is looking at things from two key perspectives: fundamental (FA) and technical (TA), both of which will drive supply and demand for the options we sell. We can easily go down and get lost in rabbit holes with each perspective, as the level of knowledge on these are vast and deep. But here’s what I look for when selling spreads: where (which tickers and strikes) and when (which expiration and policy start date) should I sell insurance policies on? Let’s take a little detour: I believe in market efficiency, in the sense that everything is priced in, at a given point in time. What this means is that when you pull up the price of a certain stock or option, it’s priced correctly at that point in time. However, when time moves forward, new information becomes available, and that’s when price starts to move. From a fundamental perspective, new information will reprice the stock and move it towards its intrinsic value, while from a technical perspective (imo: a self-fulfilling prophecy), all players in the market will trade around and potentially keep a stock within a range. Clearly, I’m oversimplifying both perspectives; there’s a reason why there are financial professionals with years of education, certification and/or experience who do this for a living, so please don’t roast me for this. But like solving a good puzzle, you can’t just make do with one piece and throw out all the others – everything needs to be pieced together to give you a clear picture on the final solution. This is my starting point, so allow me to use GME as an example. As obsolete as the brick-and-mortar video game business is, there’s an intrinsic value for the company and its stock, since there’s new company leadership and strategy along with a restructuring of the company’s finances, not to mention mass speculation buying from the social movement by WSB. If you ask me, FA would put GME in the range of $20-35 (assuming business as usual and post-covid recovery), while TA would peg GME above $50. Both perspectives considered, I would place a smart bet that GME would remain, at the very least, above $40 in the short term, hence my decision to sell a spread with a floor of $40, expiring 2/12. Regardless, know that the game with pricing in FA and TA is opportunistic in nature, meaning that there’s a component of keeping your ear to the ground to listen for the latest developments in the markets. Now let’s talk about everyone’s favorite part: execution. Now, what I’m listing here are absolutely methodical, meaning that for every opportunity that arises, I will go through my decision tree to find the perfect pair (of options) that fit the following criteria before I open a trade:
The last and most crucial topic under trading methodology is something I’ve seen asked in many subs on Reddit multiple times: how do I pick a stock/underlying to trade on? Everyone has different methods, and this is where one can easily gain an edge in trading, and yes, I believe I have my own edge. This topic on its own deserves its own writeup; something for another day, for now I will just say that the information is out there if you go and look for it. BUT, I would caution everyone by saying that you have to be careful with the information you procure, as the data can easily signal false positives. Not sharing any data sources, sorry, not sorry; unless these companies are sponsoring a portion of my student debts, I will not be advertising any names or links. Patience Having FOMO? Fear not! As time moves forward, patience is a key part of this game in waiting for an opportunity to reveal itself before you can pounce! Now I will say that it is not everyday that I find an opportunity to sell credit spreads on, as this is dependent on events happening around the world (e.g. earnings or economic announcements). But what I can tell you is that I always have ample buying power ready (I’m holding all cash as I’m typing this) for when opportunities arise. The worst thing to do as a theta-ganger is to randomly open spreads at any point in time with no rhyme or reason – you’ll regret it if volatility suddenly expands! Luck Yes, it carries some weight, thankfully it’s not 100%, but unfortunately neither is it 0%. What we do know for sure is that there are things out of our control in life. For example: gravity, the weather, and the President of Russia. (LOL.) Thankfully, there are things that we can control! No, literally! You can change your luck depending on the choices you make! For example, if you don’t vote, you potentially give the opposing candidate an increased chance of winning the election. Just know that every step you decide to take in life carries some level of probability with it, and as it relates to trading, you should try and make the moves where your portfolio ends up with a net positive expected value! Summary So there they are, my secret recipe with all the key ingredients required to make delicious tendies with your own portfolio! Praying that my time put into this lengthy and detailed writeup will bring you prosperity in the future, and that it repays my debts to Reddit of not posting enough! Heads up, I also secured a subreddit under the same name as my account: 1PercentMax to share all my thoughts and opinions in one easy to access place, where I will re-edit this writeup with more context and detail on each line item above for sharing with non-theta-gang Redditors. Thanks for reading! TL;DR Sorry, there’s a reason why profits don’t come easy. You’re gonna have to take your time and read if you want them gains! |
What is the difference between Betting and Gambling? • Gambling is a generic word to describe the activity of placing wages on particular outcomes or events taking place while betting is the term used to refer to agreement between two parties where one party makes a prediction and loses or makes money if his prediction turns to be true. The other party forfeits the amount waged or has to Contrarian Betting – Also known as betting against the public, contrarian betting finds value by betting on games with lopsided betting percentages. Cover – In sports such as football and basketball, a bettor wins their bet if they cover the point spread. A term to collectively describe all possible selections in a betting market. Fin: A slang term for a $50 bet. Fixed Odds: Odds agreed when a wager is placed. They don’t change even if the odds for the relevant selection move in the future. Form: Recent results of a team or an individual. Fractional Odds: One of the three main formats used for expressing odds. Commonly used in the United Chalk eaters: Bettors who like to bet big favorites (often a derogatory term). Circled game: A game in which the sports book has reduced its betting limits, usually because of weather or the uncertain status of injured players. Cover: Winning against the point spread. (A 10-point underdog that loses 20-14 has covered, or "covered the spread.") Betting Exchange – A betting platform where people wager against one another instead of betting against a sportsbook. The exchange operator takes a small percentage of winning wagers. This is often seen as the most efficient market for sports betting. Betting Unit – A betting unit is the amount of a typical wager. Bettors may have different sized bankrolls and a unit is a way to share how much was bet without giving away a specific dollar amount. For example, a high roller might have a Outright betting: Predicting the overall winner of a tournament or playoff competition. Over bet: Opposite of an Under bet on game total options. If the total on a Bengals versus Cardinals NFL Spread betting. A bet placed on the predicted movement of a market, rather than the outcome of an event. Spread betting is takes place in financial markets as well as sports and politics. Treble bets Lay – Betting against a certain outcome, usually peer-peer exchange betting. Also known as laying a bet or laying odds. Also known as laying a bet or laying odds. Layer – Person or bookmaker providing the bet, the odds layer. UK slang term for 'Betting Tax'. All-age Race A race for two-year-olds and up. All Out A horse who is trying to the best of his ability. Allowances Reductions in weights to be carried allowed because of certain conditions such as; an apprentice jockey is on a horse, a female horse racing against males, or three-year-olds racing against older horses. All Weather Racing Racing that takes place Hedging: Betting the opposing side of your original bet, to either ensure some profit or minimize potential loss. This is typically done with futures bets, but can also be done on individual games...
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